el-dockerr

The Arithmetic of a Full Bus: Why Malta's Buses Are Overcrowded at Rush Hour

Oct 9, 2026 · @Swen

Abstract

This paper proves that buses on Malta's trunk corridors are overcrowded during the two daily rush hours, 08:00–09:30 and 16:30–17:30. The published figure of 234,673 passenger trips per day (January–June 2026) averages only about 30 boardings per bus trip, which seems to contradict what riders feel every day. The contradiction is an artefact of averaging. People move in herds: commuters and tourists travel at the same hours, on the same corridors, in the same direction, and they cluster on the same buses. Each of these effects multiplies the load. Together they raise the load on a rush-hour trunk bus to about 100 passengers, and the load experienced by the typical rush-hour rider to about 117. A 12 m bus holds about 90 at crush capacity. We derive the exact threshold, a combined concentration factor of about 2.3, and show that unless roughly a quarter of all daily trips run inside those 2.5 hours,

el-dockerr

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