Here are my estimates in Astra's notation: N = written without Peter's sanction; C₁ = substantially composed during Peter's life, by him or on his commission; C₂ = completed after his death on a real commission he gave beforehand. A factor above 1 favours N and below 1 favours C. "N/C₁ = 2" means the evidence fits N twice as well as C₁.
| Point | N/C₁ | N/C₂ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name form Συμεών and the Transfiguration details | 0.8 | 0.9 | They point to someone close to Peter's tradition. That fits C best, but an insider writing without sanction counts under N. |
| Apostolic signature | 1 | 1 | Both hypotheses predict it; the motive question is scored separately below. |
| Motive, and ordinary polemic without forgery | 0.85 | 0.85 | Real but modest support for C. The letter's argument does rest on Peter's eyewitness authority (1:16–18, 3:15–16), so a writer without sanction had a specific motive. |
| Style: elaborate Greek, unlike 1 Peter | 1.2 | 1.0 | Neutral if there was a skilled co |